Yesterday, the price of Bitcoin finally approached the now famous psychological threshold of 100k in USD.
It has been more than three years that the crypto markets have been waiting to reach a price of 100,000 USD, and just yesterday this level was approached for the first time in history.
The 100k USD of Bitcoin
For the community of Bitcoin supporters, the 100k is a very important threshold.
They are so much so that many on their social profiles have “worn” laser eyes to support this bull run.
People started talking about 100k in USD precisely in 2021, particularly thanks to the projection of PlanB’s stock-to-flow model.
As you know S2F model predicts ~$100K average this halving cycle (white line). I dumbed that down to "$100K Dec 2021 close" because to make $100K average, mid-cycle we should be above that average. My floor model (not S2F) predicts $135K Dec close: roughly in line with S2F model. pic.twitter.com/Oel7HmsmPr
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) November 11, 2021
In reality, this model was developed in 2019 and subsequently reworked during the last great bullrun that started at the end of October 2020 and ended in November of the following year.
The original model indeed aimed at approximately 70,000 USD, which was then reached in 2021, but the reworking done with subsequent data aimed beyond 100,000 USD.
And so, after rising to 64,000 USD in April 2021, many expected that by the end of that year the price of Bitcoin could also reach 100,000 USD.
The Chinese ban
In May 2021, however, the cold shower arrived.
China issued a general ban on the trading of cryptocurrencies, which effectively drove Chinese retail capital out of the crypto market.
The price of Bitcoin quickly plummeted to 30,000 USD, although in the following months it managed to climb back up, marking new all-time highs at 69,000 USD in November of the same year.
It is possible that, had the Chinese retail capital not dried up, the price of BTC could have approached 100,000 USD by the end of 2021.
This did not happen, and during the subsequent bear-market of 2022, it even fell below 16,000 USD.
The 2024
Subsequently, Chinese retail investors and speculators actually ended up returning to the crypto markets, mainly thanks to the hidden use of foreign exchanges.
So already in 2023, Chinese retail capital had probably returned to the crypto markets, so much so that in September of this year, it was precisely the Chinese markets that drove up the price of BTC.
Furthermore, starting from January 11, the Bitcoin spot ETFs are finally available on the USA exchanges, bringing new capital to BTC from the traditional markets.
In fact, already in March, the price of Bitcoin recorded a new all-time high above 73,000 USD, beating that of November 2021.
With the victory of Trump in the presidential elections on November 5th, a new bull run then started, which brought the price of BTC well above the previous all-time highs.
The approach of 100k USD of the Bitcoin price
The approach to 100k began precisely on November 6, 2024, which is the day of Trump’s victory declaration.
That day the wall of 74,000 USD was broken, even though in the following days it moved sideways a bit around 77,000 USD.
There were then, however, two more pushes upwards.
The first between the 10th and the 13th of November, with new all-time highs above 90,000 USD, and the second, which started only three days ago, with the climb above 99,000 USD.
At this moment, the all-time high price ever reached by Bitcoin in the crypto markets is 99,500 USD, touched this morning for a brief moment.
Compared to the price on November 5, the current one is higher by 43%, and compared to that of two days ago, it is higher by 7%.
The surpassing of 100k
Now the question is: will Bitcoin be able to surpass the 100k wall?
To tell the truth, many argue that at that psychological threshold, many profit-taking actions could be triggered.
In fact, on the exchanges, several sell orders are already placed near 100,000 USD.
So, on one hand, the price of Bitcoin seems to have the possibility to rise even above the current all-time high and reach 100k, on the other hand, once it reaches that figure, it could also fall.
However, it is not certain that such a decline would necessarily be a retracement with stabilization at lower levels. It could instead be just a temporary correction with a subsequent rebound.
At this moment it is not clear what will happen, but at least we have the certainty that the 100k have already been approached, even if not reached.
The ETF
Leading the rise in recent days have been the ETFs on traditional stock exchanges.
These indeed on one hand attract capital that is not present in the crypto markets, and on the other hand purchase BTC and immobilize them, reducing the supply on the crypto exchanges.
For example, according to the data from CryptoQuant, it has been since the end of February that this dynamic continues to drain BTC from the exchanges, with a strong acceleration starting from the end of October.
In particular, starting from November 6, and especially in the last three days, several thousand BTC have been withdrawn from crypto exchanges, thus significantly reducing the supply.
Given that the demand remains very high, the price could only rise.
The risk, however, is that above 100k this dynamic may reverse due to the desire to take profit, even if medium/long-term investors often prefer to wait until the new year to sell, in order to postpone the payment of taxes on any capital gains by a year.
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