- Bitcoin is expected to rally massively after the summer’s halving event.
- Some anomalies suggest that this time might be vastly different.
Bitcoin [BTC] has been in a strong uptrend since late October 2023. While this was evident from the price action, it is unclear what might follow. AMBCrypto used a CryptoQuant Insights post to understand what the dynamics of this cycle could be.
There was a pertinent but uncomfortable question about whether the Bitcoin bull run was different this time. There is an argument to be made that it was different, but should investors be concerned?
Has the current bull run been in place since March 2023?
Source: CryptoQuant Insights
CryptoQuant user joaowedson pointed out that the Whale Last Active 7-30 days indicator began to trend upward since March 2023. During the previous bull run, the increase in whale activity in mid-2020 was accompanied by a rapid Bitcoin rally.
A similar situation played out over the past 6-8 months when the indicator began pushing noticeably higher.
Alongside the price action, the whale indicator was another sign that the current uptrend was a long-term bull run that began at $30k.
Examining miner behavior
The halving event is the talk of the town (after Bitcoin ETFs and their absurd inflows) and the miners were at its crux. Their block rewards would drop from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, which could force many of them to shut up shop if they can’t sustain till BTC prices climb higher.
An alternative is that a drop in the network hash rate and falling difficulty could ensue- but this was extremely unlikely to occur.
Source: CryptoQuant
The miner reserve chart from CryptoQuant showed a decline since November 2023. In the past two cycles, a noticeable decline in the BTC miner reserve came hand in hand with a bull run.
Hence, it was another metric which corroborated the idea that Bitcoin has begun to trend higher well in advance of the halving event. Bitcoin also made an ATH before the halving, which hasn’t happened in the previous cycles.
The importance of miners’ Bitcoin transactions was also something that has dwindled with successive cycles. This trend was likely to continue as the whales and institutional investors became the dominant players.
In that case, the halving event might become a “sell the news” type of event.
Read Bitcoin’s [BTC] Price Prediction 2024-25
Since the whale activity and miner reserve metrics, combined with the price action, support the idea of an existing bull run, the question of “when will the cycle end” comes about.
Previous cycle tops came at 526 and 547 days after the halving event. Could this run’s length be severely curtailed because we have already been running over the past 6-8 months? Only time will tell.
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