- Crypto shorts suffered a massive $147M loss as Bitcoin hit $63K.
- However, its resurgence is not off the table.
Bitcoin [BTC] bulls have propelled a breakout, reaching $63K after weeks of consolidation, spurred by Fed rate cuts.
Alongside macroeconomic factors, BTC derivative markets have confirmed a squeeze, resulting in $147M in losses for crypto shorts.
As BTC approaches the $64K high, stakeholders must strategize to push it past the key $70K resistance, as it won’t be an easy task. Why? AMBCrypto investigates.
Unfolding the squeeze
Historically, over the past 180 days since BTC last hit its ATH of $73K in March, bulls have tested the $71K level four times. Each time, strong resistance held, preventing a new ATH.
According to AMBCrypto, Bitcoin must hold $64K to target the next resistance at $68K – tested twice since June. If the bulls succeed, $71K could be within reach.
Source: Coinglass
Meanwhile, a significant spike in Open Interest(OI) likely contributed to the surge, prompting crypto shorts to close their positions and resulting in $147M in losses.
Notably, the current OI movement mirrors the late-August trend when Bitcoin tested $64K, suggesting that BTC may be approaching that price again.
However, if a similar trend unfolds, the likelihood of a breakout diminishes, as BTC bears could re-enter the market, thwarting another attempt at breaking through.
In simple terms, despite the rate cut, Bitcoin still faces significant challenges in testing $64K before a wider breakout can be expected. So, were the losses from crypto shorts due to a “short” squeeze?
Stakeholders in net profit
The chart below indicates the positions of stakeholders in response to price changes. Currently, a significant portion of buyers are in the profit zone, marked by the green wig.
Source: BGeometrics
Historically, surges in this ratio have coincided with market tops. However, during the last $64K peak, the spike was short-lived as crypto shorts quickly cashed in on their gains.
If this trend repeats, a breakout could stall as traders exit before the rally fades, reinforcing the short squeeze hypothesis.
Moreover, if crypto shorts resurge, bulls may need to seize another opportunity to push BTC toward $70K.
BTC might retrace if crypto shorts regain control
Over the past three days, as BTC surged past $60K, crypto shorts have retreated, allowing a significant influx of long positions.
Source: HyblockCapital
Read Bitcoin’s [BTC] Price Prediction 2024-25
However, a slight downward trend could trigger massive liquidations if the bulls fail to maintain support. If traders exit and bulls retreat, a resurgence of crypto shorts could push Bitcoin back below $60K.
Historically, $64K has acted as both resistance and support, and the possibility of a breakout hinges on investor strategy. Failing to capitalize on the $147M crypto shorts squeeze could see BTC retrace to $55K.
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