Over the weekend, the market value of Bitcoin (BTC) slightly decreased.
The cause, most likely, was simple profit-taking after the rally of the last few weeks
The decline in the value of BTC
The highest market value ever recorded for Bitcoin is $99,600 on Friday, November 22.
Last week it was thought that it might have the strength to break through the 100,000$ wall, but instead that strength was lacking.
It should not be forgotten that during the weekend the traditional stock markets are closed, so the trading of ETFs is absent.
For some time now, ever since the spot BTC ETFs landed on the US exchanges in January, the volatility has been greater during the trading sessions, particularly those in the US, and lower over the weekend.
But over the weekend just ended, the price of Bitcoin did not just move sideways.
Saturday it fluctuated for a while around $98,500, but by the end of the day it fell to $97,000, and then continued the decline yesterday to below $96,000.
The cause of this decline was most likely just an increase in profit-taking after the halt in growth.
The price rebound
However, the halt in growth, which started precisely from Saturday, could also be only temporary.
The fact is that over the weekend, after the halt in growth, the price of BTC seemed to be starting a correction, and this scared some who preferred to take profit.
On the other hand, at such high prices, the vast majority of those who bought Bitcoin in the past and have not yet sold them can sell at a profit, and to avoid missing the opportunity in the face of a decline, some have preferred to sell.
However, this choice, at least for now, has proven to be wrong, because today the price of BTC has returned above $98,000, which is almost at the levels of Saturday before the failed correction attempt began.
It should be remembered that something similar also happened at the end of November 2016 and at the end of November 2020, that is, the last two times the USA presidential elections were held before this year.
The wall of 100k
Many, however, continue to await the breaking of the $100,000 wall, after last week’s failed attempts.
However, there is speculation that there is an attempt underway to manipulate the price of BTC so that it does not break through that wall in the short term.
This hypothesis is based on the assumption that, in the event of the failure of several attack attempts, leveraged short positions would increase, creating significant opportunities for those betting against the shortists.
At that point, it would be enough to reverse the manipulation and let the price surge past $100,000 to automatically liquidate many short positions.
If this hypothesis were correct, other failed attacks on $100,000 could occur in these days, before another slight correction and then the momentum breakthrough of this wall.
It is not at all guaranteed that this hypothesis will ultimately prove correct.
Spoofing
The hypothesis of the attempted manipulation in progress seems justified by the existence of the so-called spoofing.
https://twitter.com/52kskew/status/1860633993785528700
Fake sell orders are created at prices just slightly higher than the current ones, in order to make it seem very difficult for the price to rise further.
Some bots that cannot interpret those orders as fake (orders that are automatically withdrawn as soon as they risk being executed) can be easily misled and may start selling to avoid the risk of having to sell later at even lower prices.
This mainly concerns purely speculative bots whose strategy is to sell at a higher price in a short period of time. If they become convinced that this is not possible, they tend to close the position by selling immediately.
The curious thing, however, is that yesterday this dynamic seemed to have a bottom at $95,000, which, however, was not reached.
The forecasts on the value of Bitcoin (BTC)
Despite all this, there are still many analysts who expect the breakthrough of the 100,000$ wall.
It must be said that many considered this event more likely in December, rather than in November, but the trend of the last few weeks has somewhat disrupted the plans.
Observing the past, however, one realizes that it has never been the month of the US presidential elections that marked the historical peaks (November), but the following month (December) or the one after that (January).
At this moment, the historical peak of reference is precisely $100,000, and since there are only six days left until December, it seems difficult that during the current week such a wall can already be broken.
It is important to remember, however, that Bitcoin often behaves differently from expectations, and if the ongoing manipulation attempt proves effective, when many become convinced of a possible correction and bet on the downside, the wall could be broken through with momentum to forcibly liquidate the leveraged short positions.
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