Tron price prediction: Will TRX drop to $0.137?

• TRX has been consolidating after the rally stirred by the SunPump hype was exhausted. 
• The narrowing Bollinger bands showed low volatility, preventing significant price changes.

Tron [TRX] has underperformed against most altcoins this week and recently lost its spot among the top ten largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization after being flipped by Cardano [ADA]. 

Last month, TRX was one of the top crypto gainers amid a memecoin boom on the blockchain. However, since the hype around Tron meme coins has faded, TRX is now struggling with low volatility. 

Tron price prediction 

TRX traded at $0.154 at press time after a 1.57% gain in 24 hours. Trading volumes were up by 32% per CoinMarketCap. During this period, the price oscillated between $0.151 and $0.155. 

TRX Bollinger bands have constricted, suggesting that volatility has narrowed, and the price may be in a consolidation phase.  

However, this indicator also suggested bullish bias as TRX price broke above the middle band and tested a breakout above the upper band. 

Source: TradingView

If a breakout above the upper band occurs, it could trigger an uptrend to the next target at $0.17.

However, the narrowing bands also show that the TRX rally reached exhaustion, and more buying activity is needed to stir further gains. 

The Stochastic Relative Strength Index (RSI) has shown a reading of 77. While this is within the overbought range, it has not reached extreme levels, invalidating the likelihood of an immediate reversal. 

Moreover, the Stoch RSI flashed a buy signal after it crossed above the signal line, an indication that the current momentum is favoring buyers. 

If the RSI continues to rise and crosses above 80 showing TRX is overbought, it could mark the beginning of a bearish reversal as was seen in late August dropping prices to the 0.382 Fibonacci level ($0.137). 

Tron transaction volumes drop 

Data from IntoTheBlock shows a notable decline in transaction volumes on the Tron blockchain. After these volumes spiked in mid-August, they have since dropped sharply, and currently sit at three-month lows.

Source: IntoTheBlock

This drop could be behind the lack of significant gains by TRX this month. Large transactions usually come with high trading volumes that stir volatility, consequently causing price breakouts. 

The spike in large transactions in August likely came from the SunPump launchpad. According to TokenTerminal, the daily active addresses on Tron are currently approaching all-time lows.

Source: Token Terminal

This shows that besides the broader market, there is no major catalyst within the Tron ecosystem to stir TRX’s price increase. 

Read Tron’s [TRX] Price Prediction 2024–2025

Nevertheless, a majority of TRX holders are above the break-even price per IntoTheBlock. These traders might choose not to sell as they anticipate further price movements.

This bullish bias is also seen in the long/short ratio, which has increased from 0.88 to above 1. This shows that short traders are closing their positions as long positions increase suggesting confidence in future price moves. 

Source: Coinglass