Bitcoin’s price is down, but a slower-moving signal buried in its chart tells a more encouraging story: the cryptocurrency is closing in on its first full moving-average bullish signal since mid-2025. The setup, which tracks how the 50-, 100- and 200-day price trends line up against each other, hasn’t appeared in this configuration in more than a year.
Key takeaways
- Bitcoin’s 50-day moving average sits above the 100-day and 200-day, with the 100-day about to overtake the 200-day for the first full bullish stack since June 2025.
- BTC jumped more than 40% to $87,000 during the third quarter of 2026 before stalling near $85,000 as the U.S. Dollar Index strengthened.
- Similar crossovers preceded multi-month rallies in 2020-2021 and 2023-2024, but also a weak 97-day run in mid-2025 and a losing 20-day stretch in June 2024.
- Giottus CEO Vikram Subburaj says the real test is whether bitcoin can hold above its 50-day average through the next price correction.
Bitcoin Nears a Full Bullish Moving-Average Alignment
A full bullish alignment happens when the 50-day moving average sits above the 100-day, which in turn sits above the 200-day — a stack that signals upward momentum across short-, medium- and long-term trends at once. According to CoinDesk, bitcoin is one crossover away from that exact setup, which would mark the first bitcoin bullish signal of this kind since 2025.
As of the report, the 50-day average stood at $79,495, comfortably above both longer-dated lines. The 100-day average, at $79,493, was rising fast and sitting just below the 200-day average of $79,539. Once the 100-day average crosses above the 200-day, all three lines will be stacked in bullish order.
Vikram Subburaj, CEO of the India-based Giottus exchange, told CoinDesk that the crossover “would restore the order of 50-day above 100-day above 200-day for the first time since the previous alignment formed on June 24, 2025.”
Bitcoin’s Price Recovery Runs Into a Stronger Dollar
The technical setup lines up with a real recovery in price, not just a chart pattern. Bitcoin’s price climbed more than 40% to $87,000 during the third quarter of 2026, according to CoinDesk, before the advance lost steam near $85,000 as the U.S. Dollar Index pushed higher.
The approaching crossover confirms the recovery has endured. In other words, the three-month climb in bitcoin’s price wasn’t a short-lived bounce — the moving averages are now catching up to validate it.
Past Crossovers Have Delivered Mixed Results
History demonstrates that this type of bitcoin bullish signal offers no guarantee of future performance. Several of these alignments have preceded substantial rallies. For instance, one emerged on October 27, 2020, when bitcoin was trading close to $13,600, and it persisted until May 2021, by which time bitcoin had reached a then-unprecedented high above $64,000. Another alignment, verified in early November 2023, remained in place until May 2024, a period in which bitcoin’s value more than doubled, climbing from around $35,000 to $73,000.
However, not every alignment has led to lasting gains. The alignment that appeared in June 2025 persisted for 97 days yet resulted in only a modest increase, moving from approximately $106,000 to $112,000. Likewise, a comparable pattern in June 2024 lasted merely 20 days before bitcoin dropped around 10%.
“The crossover strengthens the trend case, but it does not guarantee its continuation,” Subburaj told CoinDesk. “The asset’s price behaviour afterwards will determine whether it becomes a sustained bull-market structure or another short-lived alignment.”
What Comes Next: Sustaining the 50-Day Average
Subburaj pointed to the 50-day moving average as the line that matters most going forward. He said the real test now is whether bitcoin’s spot price can keep trading above that average through whatever volatility comes next.
“The more consequential test is whether Bitcoin can hold the 50-day average during a correction,” he told CoinDesk. That line, currently near $79,495, is the level traders following this setup will be watching most closely as the 100-day and 200-day averages finish their crossover.
Article produced with the assistance of artificial intelligence and reviewed by the editorial team.
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