Bernstein analysts Gautam Chhugani, Mahika Sapra, and Sanskar Chindalia have provided insights into when Bitcoin’s price could turn bullish again and record new highs. The analysts also alluded to the impact that former US president Donald Trump could have on Bitcoin’s trajectory.
When Bitcoin Price Will Turn Bullish Again
Bernstein analysts mentioned in a research note on August 5 that they expect Bitcoin and the broader crypto market to recover if the equity markets recover due to a response from the Federal Reserve. They expect this response to come in the form of a rate cut and injection of more liquidity into the economy.
These analysts mentioned that the recent crash in the crypto market wasn’t Bitcoin’s fault this time, but it was large due to the “fears in equity markets” and other macroeconomic factors. The US stock market is currently facing a massive decline amid fears that the US economy might enter a recession.
Due to its historical correlation with these equities, Bitcoin also experienced a wave of massive sell-offs, which began during the weekend. This caused the flagship crypto to drop below $50,000 for the first time since February earlier this year. The broader crypto market followed suit as altcoins experienced massive price declines.
Chhugani, Sapra, and Chindalia predict that the macro side will continue to impact Bitcoin and the crypto market for most of this third quarter. There have been speculations that the Fed might cut interest rates at its next FOMC meeting in September, which will undoubtedly be positive for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Interestingly, market experts like prominent economist Jeremy Siegel have called for an emergency rate cut in addition to the projected rate cut that could happen in September. However, whether the Fed will succumb to such pressures remains to be seen, especially as they do not seem convinced that the US is close to a recession.
The US election is another factor that these analysts expect to impact BTC and the broader crypto market. They stated that Bitcoin “remains a ‘Trump trade’” and expect these crypto assets to continue to be range-bound until after the election. Bitcoin is expected to react positively if Trump eventually wins as he is considered more crypto-friendly than Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris.
BTC’s Outlook Is Still Bullish
Despite the recent decline, these Bernstein analysts remain bullish on Bitcoin in the long term, noting that there are no “incremental negatives for crypto” at the moment. They alluded to BTC’s institutional adoption trend through the Spot Bitcoin ETFs, which provides a bullish outlook as more institutional investors continue to adopt the flagship crypto.
These analysts expect more “wirehouse approvals into Q3 and Q4, thus providing further on-ramps for asset allocation to Bitcoin.” Powerhouse Morgan Stanley has reportedly told its financial advisors they can begin offering these Spot Bitcoin ETFs to their wealthy clients starting August 7.
Featured image from PCMag, chart from TradingView.com
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