- The absence of significant catalysts has left the crypto market sensitive to US macro data prints.
- Bitcoin’s weekly Relative Strength Index reading closed at its lowest level since January 2023.
Bitcoin [BTC] briefly climbed above $55,500 on 9th September after mild losses heading into the weekend, which cemented negative returns of 4.26% for the just-concluded week.
Though not as deep as the 11% slide in the preceding week, the slightly underwhelming close marked consecutive weekly losses for the crypto asset since 10th June, when it tracked declines for four straight weeks.
Observers chalked up last week’s dip to the U.S. non-farm payroll data and negative flows from Bitcoin ETFs. The latest U.S. jobs report revealed the economy added 142,000 non-farm payrolls in August, short of the expectations of 160,000.
Meanwhile, data from SoSo Value showed Bitcoin spot ETFs are on an eight-day streak of outflows.
Final week of inflation data before FOMC meeting
This week, market participants welcome more U.S. economic data that could influence the Fed’s 18th September rate decision and impact the overall market direction.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release August’s U.S. Consumer Price Index report on Wednesday, 11th September, followed by the Producer Price Index data on Thursday.
The releases come after Tuesday’s US Presidential debate between candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Ahead of the debate, analysts at Bernstein have pointed out that the election’s outcome and the nature of the regulatory environment are not accounted for in the current market.
The analysts led by Gautam Chhugani forecast that Bitcoin could fall to the $30,000 to $40,000 range if Democrat nominee and VP Harris is elected as President.
A Trump victory in the November elections could, on the other hand, propel Bitcoin above $80,000 by the fourth quarter.
Further decline below $50,000 on the cards
In his latest analysis involving Bayesian probabilities, chart trader Peter Brandt noted that technical indicators have been increasingly leaning in favor of his initial low $30,000 range projection.
He said,
“Currently, my Bayesian Probability for sub-$40,000 is at 65% with a yet-to-be-achieved top at $80,000 at 20% and an advance during this halving cycle to $130,000 by September 2025 at 15%.”
Brandt’s analysis builds on his initial price forecasts. In April, he observed that BTC price had reached a market top after setting an all-time high of $73,835, and in May, he projected a continuation of a bull trend at the time.
Brandt isn’t alone in the bearish assessment. 10x Research founder Markus Thielen also opined that Bitcoin reached a cycle top in April drawing attention to reduced Bitcoin network activity after Q1.
Thielen also identified steady Bitcoin ETF outflows and a weak US economy as other bearish factors that could drive BTC down further.
Halving thesis still in play
Bitcoin made a new all-time high this year before the halving and has been trading sluggishly since the event. Still, some analysts contend that Bitcoin is poised for further gains based on the price action in previous halving years.
Bitcoin consistently tracked gains across October, November, and December 2016 and 2020.
Source: Peter Brandt
Worth noting, Bitcoin’s price relative to gold has been making lower highs this year despite a boost from spot Bitcoin ETFs debut and March’s halving event. Brandt believes this continued price weakness could drive the BTC/Gold ratio to reach 15 to 1.
Read Bitcoin’s [BTC] Price Prediction 2024–2025
BTC/USDT potential rebound
Bitcoin is trading near $55,400 at writing after posting the lowest weekly close since late February. The BTC weekly RSI similarly closed at its lowest level since the start of 2023.
Source: TradingView
Interestingly, Bitcoin order books hint at a potential bullish setup on the horizon as does the Bitcoin CME futures chart. Bitcoin futures opened higher than last week, moving back into a descending wedge pattern after briefly breaking below it.
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