A 2022 settlement with the CFTC requires Polymarket to block users in the U.S. from making trades, however.
Polymarket’s app is currently more popular among American users of Apple’s App Store than those of many very well-established brands.
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Posted October 17, 2024 at 11:54 am EST.
Polymarket rose to the #1 spot on the Apple’s U.S. App Store’s list of free magazines and news apps Thursday, as October trading volume surpassed $1 billion, according to data from Dune. The app is currently more popular than apps for The New York Times, CNN, The Wall Street Journal, and Washington Post.
At the time of publication, Dune’s data shows that Polymarket’s overall October trading volume is $1.05 billion, with over 96,000 active traders.
Polymarket is required to block U.S. users from making trades on the platform as a result of a 2022 settlement with the CFTC, though Polymarket has continued to allow American users to visit the website and download the app. Polymarket’s popularity on the App Store suggests that U.S. users are downloading the app and then making trades with the help of VPNs.
“Who would’ve predicted this,” wrote Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan on X, along with a screenshot showing Polymarket topping the App store’s list of the most popular free magazine and newspaper apps. Coplan did not immediately respond to a request for comment for this story, including whether the popularity of Polymarket on the U.S. App Store means American users are placing trades on the platform.
The CFTC also did not respond to questions by press time.
Polymarket has seen a huge surge in trading volume this year due to the popularity of its election betting products, which allow users to wager on which candidate they think will win the presidential election, as well as other races. According to Dune, over 75% of money users wagered this week was elections-related. The percentage of bets that were election-related has risen steadily since January, when Dune began aggregating the data. Polymarket currently shows that former President Donald Trump has a nearly 62% chance of winning the November presidential election.
Rival predictions market Kalshi was recently given temporary permission by a Washington, DC appeals court to host election bets on its platform. Unlike Polymarket, Kalshi is regulated by the CFTC and is allowed to host American users. So far, Kalshi has seen nearly $20 million in all-time trading volume on its presidential election product, a small fraction of the $612 million in trading volume on Polymarket’s rival product. Kalshi has launched a flashy public marketing campaign since being cleared to host election bets, which was expected to cost more than $1.5 million, according to court filings.
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