- BTC’s momentum has turned bullish for the first time in H2 2024.
- Will the uptrend continue and follow historical US pre-election trends?
Last week was a great and bullish one for Bitcoin [BTC]. It pumped nearly 10%, rallying from $62.5K to $69.4K due to strong spot market demand.
The recent rally made BTC only 7% away from its ATH of $73.7K, which it hit in March.
According to analyst Stockmoney Lizards, last week’s rally flipped BTC momentum bullish and could be accelerated by historical uptrends linked to US elections.
He noted that BTC’s momentum turned bullish for the first time in H2 2024.
“Momentum is turning bullish”
Source: X
For perspective, the SMI (Stochastic Momentum Index) is a momentum indicator that gauges an BTC price relative to a recent midpoint. It shows whether it is overbought or oversold.
The current reading on the 2-week chart showed a rebound above the neutral 50-level, indicating a bullish reversal was in play.
This was similar to the 2020 trend just before BTC broke its re-accumulation range and could signal a likely bullish breakout.
BTC: US pre-elections trend
Source: X
The analyst added that explosive BTC upsides associated with the US pre-election might play out again.
In 2016 and 2020, two weeks before the US elections, BTC pumped 10% and 18%, respectively.
If the trend repeats in 2024, Stockmoney Lizards projected a new ATH before the US elections could be likely.
“For 2024, this would mean, we could see a new ATH before the elections (+10% = $74,000) with a massive pump in November and December.”
But do on-chain metrics also lean towards this bullish outlook?
Source: Glassnode
Since July, overall interest and network growth in BTC has stagnated, as seen in daily active addresses.
Although this could derail an explosive breakout for BTC, whales were massively adding positions.
Since last week, whales have held more BTC positions than retailers, per the positive Whale vs. Retail Delta metric. This suggested that whales were massively accumulating and were confident of a price uptrend.
Source: Hyblock
However, a decline in the metric could signal a potential BTC retracement, with $66K a key level of interest if a short-term pullback ensues.
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