Bitcoin has remained on course for a second consecutive October loss, challenging its “Uptober” reputation as weakening U.S. spot demand offsets renewed purchases through exchange-traded funds ahead of the Federal Reserve’s October 28 decision.
Summary
- Bitcoin is heading toward a second consecutive losing October after declining 3.8% in October 2025.
- BTC lost 4.2% through October 25, compared with an average October gain of 18.1% during 2020–2025.
- CryptoQuant recorded a persistently negative Coinbase premium, indicating weak relative demand on the U.S. exchange.
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $176 million on October 27, led by BlackRock’s $151.5 million IBIT inflow.
- CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index fell from 90 to 60 ahead of the Fed decision and November elections
According to crypto.news market data, Bitcoin price dropped from about $83,600 at September’s close to $79,200. BTC subsequently recovered toward $81,500 on Wednesday, reducing that earlier loss, although the final monthly result remains undecided with three calendar days left.
The cryptocurrency last closed October lower in 2025, when it lost approximately 3.8%. Another negative finish would make 2026 the second losing October in succession, following five years of gains that helped establish the seasonal nickname.
Bitcoin’s Downtober threatens a five-year winning pattern
Bitcoin advanced 27.6% in October 2020, 40% in 2021, 5.5% in 2022, 28.5% in 2023 and 10.9% in 2024, according to the historical figures cited in CryptoQuant’s report. The five positive years averaged 22.5%, although their individual returns varied considerably.
Including the 2025 decline reduces the 2020–2025 October average to approximately 18.1%. That six-year average is a historical description, not a forecast, and the latest October has not yet closed.
The month began with Bitcoin near $83,567, following a strong third-quarter recovery. Bitfinex analysts had warned in a previous assessment that the strength of that recovery depended on new spot purchases, not simply short covering or futures positioning. As crypto.news previously reported on Bitcoin’s recovery, ETF subscriptions had already slowed considerably after September’s buying spree.
CryptoQuant finds weak US demand despite ETF inflows
CryptoQuant’s latest findings point to a prolonged absence of U.S. buying pressure. Its Coinbase Premium Index, which compares Bitcoin prices on Coinbase with offshore venues, remained below zero throughout October and fell to minus 0.146 on October 24, its lowest reading since late June.
A negative premium indicates Coinbase buyers were paying less than offshore market participants, but it does not identify every American buyer or prove that all U.S. investors were selling.
According to the firm’s demand estimates, apparent spot demand remained negative each day from October 14. The 30-day measure showed a shortfall of roughly 76,000 BTC by October 25, with buying insufficient to absorb available coin supply under CryptoQuant’s model.
Research head Julio Moreno said the firm’s Bull Score Index had declined from 90 to 60. Six of the model’s ten indicators remained bullish, however, suggesting deterioration in conditions without establishing a complete reversal.
ETF data offers a different perspective. U.S. spot Bitcoin funds attracted $176 million on October 27, according to SoSoValue data, with BlackRock’s IBIT accounting for $151.5 million and Fidelity’s FBTC for $24.5 million.
Those purchases followed roughly $773.5 million in combined withdrawals on October 22 and 23. The distinction between positive ETF subscriptions and negative estimated spot demand has appeared before: an examination of fund flows found that billions in late-September ETF buying did not immediately turn CryptoQuant’s 30-day apparent demand measure positive.
Fed decision puts month-end Bitcoin price in focus
Bitcoin’s rebound has arrived ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve announcement, with investors awaiting guidance on the possibility of another interest-rate increase in December. The October 27–28 meeting precedes U.S. GDP and personal consumption expenditures inflation releases scheduled for Thursday.
An October market outlook identified $82,000 as a key level for Bitcoin entering the month. Its analysts expected institutional flows and inflation data to influence whether buyers could sustain the recovery, without relying on October’s historical record.
CryptoQuant’s latest risk levels sit lower. Moreno identified the 365-day moving average near $77,585, the trader realized price around $74,041 and the 200-day moving average near $73,028 as reference points if Bitcoin weakens.
The firm’s report found that the premium of market price over the realized cost of one- to three-month holders narrowed from 33.4% on September 22 to 8.1% on October 26. That leaves a smaller unrealized profit cushion for those holders if prices decline.
Market commentator Crypto Warrior said the disappointing October did not settle Bitcoin’s direction for November. The next scheduled U.S. midterm elections fall on November 3, following the month’s final trading sessions.
Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.
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